학과소식

Image title: Trends and factors of urban shrinkage in medium-sized cities of China

Image caption: The findings of the study provide important insights for helping the government better formulate urban development policies, mitigating urban shrinkage and promoting the sustainable development of regions.

Image credit: The authors

License type: Original Content

Usage restrictions: Cannot be reused without permission

Researchers investigate the spatial distribution and factors affecting urban shrinkage of medium-sized cities in China  

 

Urban shrinkage is a natural phase in the life cycle of industrialized cities that occurs due to population decline. Most studies, however, overlook urban shrinkage in medium-sized cities. To address this gap, researchers analyzed the spatial distribution and the factors affecting urban shrinkage of medium-sized cities at the county level in China. Based on the findings, the researchers also proposed crucial policy changes to mitigate urban shrinkage.

 

Cities do not always grow in a straight line. Like living organisms, they experience growth, maturity, and sometimes decline. This decline, known as urban shrinkage, is a natural phase in the urban life cycle. It is common in industrialized cities, marked by aging social infrastructure resulting from population decline.

 

Population decline becomes inevitable after cities reach their peak. This phenomenon has been widely studied in China and around the world. However, most existing research has focused on large and small cities, overlooking the equally important medium-sized cities. Medium-sized cities play a critical role in regional development and are increasingly recognized as key drivers of future growth and development. Yet, their complexity and multidimensional characteristics make analysis difficult. 

 

To address this gap, Professor Jeewook Hwang and Ph.D. student DongLin Yuan from the Department of Urban Engineering at Jeonbuk National University in South Korea examined urban shrinkage in China’s medium-sized cities at the county level. “We analyzed the spatial distribution of shrinking medium-sized cities and assessed how economic growth, population structure, and market development influence urban shrinkage, and proposed countermeasures,” explains Prof. Hwang. Their study was made available online on July 08, 2025, and published in Volume 151, Issue 3 of the Journal of Urban Planning and Development on September 01, 2025.

 

The researchers used population data from the fifth (2000), sixth (2010), and seventh (2020) national censuses of China. First, the researchers examined the extent of urban shrinkage in medium-sized cities from 2000 to 2020. Using population change rates as an indicator of urban shrinkage, they categorized cities into five shrinkage levels. The results showed that more than 57.5% (approximately 497) of medium-sized county-level cities experienced urban shrinkage. Level I, representing 1% to 5% shrinkage, was the most common, followed by Levels II (6% to 10% shrinkage) and V (> 20% shrinkage). 

 

Next, the researchers conducted spatial analysis, which showed that shrinking cities are geographically clustered together and that this clustering becomes more significant over time. The analysis also revealed that the overall distribution of urban shrinkage shifted from northeast-to-southwest.

 

Lastly, to understand the influence of socioeconomic factors on urban shrinkage, the researchers employed a geographical detector model. The exodus of the working-age population was the primary driver of urban shrinkage. The size of the underage or primary school-age population and fiscal expenditure also had a significant influence. In contrast, industrial and economic factors had a relatively weaker influence. 

 

Based on these findings, the researchers proposed several policy recommendations to mitigate urban shrinkage. These include establishing special economic zones, improving education and public welfare services, as well as optimizing industrial structure. 

 

“Our findings can help urban planners and policymakers identify which cities are most at risk of shrinking and why. In the long term, this research will help prevent the decline of medium-sized cities not only in China but also globally,” concludes Prof. Hwang.

 

 

 

 

 

Reference

Title of original paper: Urban Shrinkage in Medium-Sized Cities: Trajectories and Influencing Factors

Journal: Journal of Urban Planning and Development

DOI: 10.1061/JUPDDM.UPENG-5631 

 

About Professor Jeewook Hwang [PURE Author Profile]

Dr. Jeewook Hwang is a Professor of Urban Planning and Development and Director of Center for Urban Regeneration & Spatial Information at Jeonbuk National University. His group is developing approaches to predict and control population shrinkage through urban regeneration and smart city planning. In particular, Hwang, together with DongLin Yuan, a Ph.D. candidate, is developing real-estate market & policy prognosis and evaluation using the DID (Difference in Difference) method. Before joining Jeonbuk National University, he obtained a Diploma degree (M.S.) in 1996 and a Doctoral degree (Ph.D.) in 2000 from the faculty of Raumplanung at TU Dortmund, Germany.